Trend Analysis of Gout Burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and Prediction for the Next Ten Years

Abstract

Background Gout is the most common inflammatory arthritis, which causes great harm to people's health, however, there are limited studies on the trend analysis and prediction of gout burden in China. Objective To analyze the changing trend of gout in China from 1990 to 2019, and predict the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate, incidence rate and prevalence rate of gout in the next 10 years. Methods The indicators of DALYs, incidence, and prevalence of gout in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2019), the annual percentage change (APC) and annual average percentage change (AAPC) of the age-standardized DALYs rate, age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate were calculated using the Joinpoint regression model, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) was used to predict the age-standardized DALYs rate, age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate in 2020-2029. Results In 1990-2019, the DALYs of gout in China increased from 187 436 to 510 485 person-years, with an increase of 172.35%, the number of cases increased from 1 181 969 to 3 041 329, with an increase of 157.31%, the number of patients increased from 5 864 143 to 16 161 325, with an increase of 175.60% (the corresponding standardized rates increased by 28.45%, 25.92% and 28.63%, respectively). Joinpoint regression results showed an overall increasing trend in the age-standardized DALYs rate, age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate (AAPC was 0.9%, 0.8%, 0.9%, respectively, P<0.05) from 1990 to 2019. The gout burden had significant gender and age differences, with men having a higher burden than women, and the range of the male-to-female gender ratios for the standardized DALYs rate, age-standardized incidence rate, and age-standardized prevalence rate was 3.23 to 3.51, 3.14 to 3.40, and 3.17 to 3.42, respectively. The age peaks for each indicator were generally delayed in females compared to males, the burden began to increase in females after 45 years of age, and the burden increased again after 90 years of age for both males and females. The ARIMA model results showed that the age-standardized DALYs rate and age-standardized incidence rate due to gout are projected to decrease by 0.33% and 0.45%, respectively, and the age-standardized prevalence rate to increase by 0.71% by 2029. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the gout burden in China showed an obvious increasing trend, with significant gender and age differences, and a trend of younger age. The age-standardized prevalence rate due to gout is expected to increase slightly by 2029.

Keywords

• gout|incidence|prevalence|burden of illness|trend analysis|arima model|dalys