Trend analysis and forecasting of energy humanization in Ghana

Abstract

Energy is a key source of economic growth because many production and consumption activities involve energy as a basic input hence central to the operation of any modern economy. The study constructs an energy humanization index and forecasts the various dimensions of energy humanization in Ghana by 2030 using the minimum-maximum normalization approach and assigning equal weight to each of the different indicators and dimensions. The forecast ascertains the achievability of SDG 7. Exponential smoothing was also adopted for forecasting future values. The study employed a dataset spanning from 1980 to 2021. The analysis revealed a positive trend in energy humanization, particularly within the dimension of energy usage. However, the energy security dimension presents a mixed picture. While some aspects, such as energy availability, have consistently improved, others like energy acceptability, affordability, and technology application have declined over time. This decline is concerning because of the importance of these dimensions in a comprehensive energy humanization framework. Without significant interventions, these crucial aspects are expected to worsen, potentially undermining the overall progress in energy humanization. The study recommends the implementation of carbon capture by IPPs, the promotion of electric vehicles, and investment in smart technologies in Ghana. Also, the Ministry of Finance must be circumspect in imposing more levies on petroleum products and electricity tariff although it is an inelastic good.

Keywords

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