Modeling and Control of the Extreme Ideology Transmission Dynamics in a Society

Abstract

In this work, we propose a mathematical model to analyze the spread of extreme ideology in society. The so-called SERTA model divides the entire population into five compartments, namely susceptible, extremist, recruiter, treatment, and aware, to describe the state of the willingness of community members toward extreme ideology. We first present a model with constant control, i.e., a model without a dynamical control instrument, and provide the stability analysis of its equilibrium points based on the basic reproduction number. We then reformulate the model into an optimal control framework by introducing three control variables, namely prevention, disengagement, and deradicalization, to enable intervention of the dynamical process. The optimality conditions are obtained by employing Pontryagin's maximum principle, showing the optimal interdependence of state, co-state, and control variables. Numerical simulations based on the well-known Runge-Kutta algorithm and forward-backward sweep method are carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies under different scenarios. From the simulation results, it is found that by applying the three controls, the optimum solution is obtained. Besides that, in this study, disengagement contributes the most effect in suppressing extremist and recruiter populations, both by using single control and multiple controls.

Keywords

• optimal control model
• pontryagin’s maximum principle
• spread of extreme ideology
• stability analysis