Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand

Abstract

COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that can spread rapidly. Controlling the spread through vaccination is one of the measures for activating immunization that helps to reduce the number of infected people. Different types of vaccines are effective in preventing and alleviating the symptoms of the disease in different ways. In this study, a mathematical model, SVIHR, was developed to assess the behavior of disease transmission in Thailand by considering the vaccine efficacy of different vaccine types and the vaccination rate. The equilibrium points were investigated and the basic reproduction number R0 was calculated using a next-generation matrix to determine the stability of the equilibrium. We found that the disease-free equilibrium point was asymptotically stable if, and only if, R01, and the endemic equilibrium was asymptotically stable if, and only if, R0>1. The simulation results and the estimation of the parameters applied to the actual data in Thailand are reported. The sensitivity of parameters related to the basic reproduction number was compared with estimates of the effectiveness of pandemic controls. The simulations of different vaccine efficacies for different vaccine types were compared and the average mixing of vaccine types was reported to assess the vaccination policies. Finally, the trade-off between the vaccine efficacy and the vaccination rate was investigated, resulting in the essentiality of vaccine efficacy to restrict the spread of COVID-19.

Keywords

• mathematical model
• COVID-19
• vaccine