Optimal control and bifurcation analysis of SEIHR model for COVID-19 with vaccination strategies and mask efficiency

Abstract

In this article, we present a susceptible, exposed, infected, hospitalized and recovered compartmental model for COVID-19 with vaccination strategies and mask efficiency. Initially, we established the positivity and boundedness of the solutions to ensure realistic predictions. To assess the epidemiological relevance of the system, an examination is conducted to ascertain the local stability of the endemic equilibrium and the global stability across two equilibrium points are carried out. The global stability of the system is demonstrated using Lyapunov’s direct method. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number (BRN) is less than one, whereas the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when BRN is greater than one. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the influential factors in the BRN. The impact of various time-dependent strategies for managing and regulating the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 is investigated. In this study, Pontryagin’s maximum principle for optimal control analysis is used to identify the most effective strategy for controlling the disease, including single, coupled, and threefold interventions. Single-control interventions reveal physical distancing as the most effective strategy, coupled measures reduce exposed populations, and implementing all controls reduces susceptibility and infections.

Keywords

• global stability
• backward bifurcation
• optimal control
• lyapunov’s direct method
• 92b05
• 92d30
• 93c15
• 93d30
• 34d23