Vessel Trajectory Prediction at Inner Harbor Based on Deep Learning Using AIS Data

Abstract

This study aims to improve vessel trajectory prediction in the inner harbor of Busan Port using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and deep-learning techniques. The research addresses the challenge of irregular AIS data intervals through linear interpolation and focuses on enhancing the accuracy of predictions in complex port environments. Recurrent neural network (RNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Bidirectional GRU models were developed, with LSTM delivering the highest performance. The primary scientific question of this study is how to reliably predict vessel trajectories under varying conditions in inner harbors. The results demonstrate that the proposed method not only improves the precision of predictions but also identifies critical areas where Vessel Traffic Service Operators (VTSOs) can better manage vessel movements. These findings contribute to safer and more efficient vessel traffic management in ports with high traffic density and complex navigational challenges.

Keywords

• vessel traffic services (VTSs)
• trajectory prediction
• AIS
• machine learning
• deep learning
• maritime safety