Disease burden and attributable risk factors of dementia in 13 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative: an analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abstract

ObjectiveTo describe the disease burden of dementia in thirteen countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and to predict the epidemiological trend of dementia in China to provide evidence for the development of dementia prevention and control strategies. MethodsData of the disease burden of dementia from 1990 to 2019 in 13 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was taken to describe the changing trend in the standardized rate of dementia incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for each country; gender-specific dementia mortality attributable to major risk factors in 2019 was estimated and compared for the countries. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed using the R language to predict dementia incidence and mortality in China from 2020 to 2029. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rate (1/100 000) of dementia in China increased from 90.44 to 103.83, with an EAPC of 0.33%, the highest increase among the 13 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, showing the most significant upward trend. The fastest growth in standardized mortality rate and standardized DALYs rate was found in India, with EAPCs of 0.76% and 0.53%, respectively. The ARIMA model predicts that from 2020 to 2029, the standardized incidence rate of dementia in China will increase by 2.3%, while the standardized mortality rate will decrease by 1.3%. ConclusionSince 1990, the disease burden of dementia has been steadily increasing in most of the 13 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. These countries should urgently formulate appropriate dementia prevention and treatment plans and prioritize them in the public health sector.

Keywords

• the belt and road initiative
• dementia
• disease burden
• attributable risk
• prediction