Prognostic Factors and a Model for Occult Breast Cancer: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Abstract

Occult breast cancer (OBC) is a special type of breast cancer of an unknown primary origin. Early stage OBC is treated as stage II–III breast cancer. Currently, there are no models for predicting the survival outcomes. Hence, we aimed to evaluate the role of the positive lymph node ratio (PLNR) in OBC and further establish and validate a prognostic nomogram. Patients with stage T0N+M0 breast cancer were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to evaluate the effects of prognostic factors on breast-cancer-specific survival (BCSS), and a nomogram was established and validated for OBC. Overall, 843 patients were included, and the 5-year BCSS rate was 92.4%. Patients with a PLNR < 0.54 had better BCSS rates than those with a PLNR ≥ 0.54. The nomogram combined clinicopathological parameters, including the PLNR, pN stage, and estrogen receptor status, and showed a higher accuracy than the TNM staging system in predicting the BCSS. The patients could be stratified into different risk groups based on their prognostic scores. Patients in the low-risk subgroup showed an improved BCSS compared those in the high-risk subgroup. In conclusion, the PLNR is an independent prognostic factor for OBC. The PLNR-based nomogram has a better predictive ability than the TNM staging system and could be of great value for the treatment of OBC and prediction of its prognosis.

Keywords

• breast
• occult breast cancer
• nomogram
• prognosis
• surveillance
• epidemiology