Modeling the impact of threats and vulnerabilities in transport logistics of a developing enterprise

Abstract

A scientific and appliedproblem of modeling the impact of threats and vulnerabilities in the logistics of transportation of goods of a distributed production system was posed and solved. The relevance of the research topic is associated with the identification of significant threats and the emergence of vulnerabilities, which can lead to deterioration in the main indicators of a developing enterprise. The research solves of the task of increasing of logistic processes effectiveness of goods transportation in a distributed manufacturing system in emerging threats and manifestation of vulnerability conditions. A set of possible threats is analyzed and formed, which influence goods transportation in a heterogeneous transport system of distributed manufacture. A virtual experiment method is proposed for using the experts' opinions regarding the identification of threat factors using a developed multifactorial and multi-response experimental plan, where lines represent the factors and a combination of threat factors, and the columns are associated with possible threats. A manifestation of vulnerabilities risks and emerging threats is used as responses. A regressive dependence to identify the most important threat factors is formed.The cost indicators are used for solving optimization problems, which connected with vulnerability removal, the time of events to vulnerabilities neutralization and risks of threat emergence. The cost minimization associated with the removal (neutralization) of vulnerabilities that may appear when threats emerge. The agent model for simulation and event modeling of a logistic of transportation in a distributed manufacture in conditions of threat factors and vulnerability emergence is proposed. Agent-based modeling allows you to determine the time of goods movement without vulnerability emergence and time of goods movement with vulnerability emergence using possible risk generator. Mathematical methods used systems analysis, the theory of experiments planning, integer (Boolean) programming, agent-based and event modeling.

Keywords

• distributed manufacture
• logistics processes of transportation
• vulnerabilities in logistic chains
• threat factors
• costs optimization
• agent and event based modeling