Extreme surface solar ultraviolet radiation events reduce maize yields in China

Abstract

Abstract Over recent decades, changes in atmospheric ozone and climate have substantially altered surface solar ultraviolet radiation, but the impacts of these changes on crop yields remain unclear. Here we analyze climate data and maize yields from 1992 to 2018 across China to quantify how extreme ultraviolet radiation events—periods of exceptionally high ultraviolet exposure—affect maize production. We show that maize yields decline by about 0.72% for each 1% increase in these events, especially during critical mid-growing stages, although higher soil moisture can reduce this damage. By the 2030 s, extreme ultraviolet radiation could reduce yields by 1.4% and 2.17%, with losses increasing substantially under moderate dry (by 51%) and severe heat stress (by 124%). These findings underscore the necessity of accounting for changes in ultraviolet radiation to improve the accuracy of yield projections.