El clivaje centro-periferia en las elecciones colombianas: una estructura y sus matices(2014-2022)

Abstract

Objective/context: This article studies the appearance in 2014, and subsequent consolidation, of a center-periphery cleavage, in the sense of Lipset and Rokkan, in Colombia’s voting pattern in national elections. Methodology: We performed a cluster analysis of the electoral results at the municipal level of the presidential runoffs and the 2016 plebiscite. Conclusions: We show how increasingly marked geographical patterns are configured that oppose electoral behaviors of municipalities in the center and geographic periphery of the country. We also point out how we can specify the analysis of this cleavage through subcategories of electoral behaviors, to end with reflections on its nature and possible future evolution. Originality: The study draws attention to the importance of taking into account the center-periphery cleavage as a structural factor for understanding Colombian elections beyond particular circumstances, such as those that characterized the last electoral cycle of 2022.

Keywords

• colombia
• elections
• electoral behavior
• spatial analysis