Risk Management and Healthcare Policy (May 2022)
Dengue Early Warning System as Outbreak Prediction Tool: A Systematic Review
Abstract
Mazni Baharom, Norfazilah Ahmad, Rozita Hod, Mohd Rizal Abdul Manaf Department of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur, 56000, MalaysiaCorrespondence: Norfazilah Ahmad, Department of Community Health, Faculty of Medicine, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bandar Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur, 56000, Malaysia, Tel +60391458781, Fax +60391456670, Email [email protected]: Early warning system (EWS) for vector-borne diseases is incredibly complex due to numerous factors originating from human, environmental, vector and the disease itself. Dengue EWS aims to collect data that leads to prompt decision-making processes that trigger disease intervention strategies to minimize the impact on a specific population. Dengue EWS may have a similar structural design, functions, and analytical approaches but different performance and ability to predict outbreaks. Hence, this review aims to summarise and discuss the evidence of different EWSs, their performance, and their ability to predict dengue outbreaks. A systematic literature search was performed of four primary databases: Scopus, Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE, and EBSCOhost. Eligible articles were evaluated using a checklist for assessing the quality of the studies. A total of 17 studies were included in this systematic review. All EWS models demonstrated reasonably good predictive abilities to predict dengue outbreaks. However, the accuracy of their predictions varied greatly depending on the model used and the data quality. The reported sensitivity ranged from 50 to 100%, while specificity was 74 to 94.7%. A range between 70 to 96.3% was reported for prediction model accuracy and 43 to 86% for PPV. Overall, meteorological alarm indicators (temperatures and rainfall) were the most frequently used and displayed the best performing indicator. Other potential alarm indicators are entomology (female mosquito infection rate), epidemiology, population and socioeconomic factors. EWS is an essential tool to support district health managers and national health planners to mitigate or prevent disease outbreaks. This systematic review highlights the benefits of integrating several epidemiological tools focusing on incorporating climatic, environmental, epidemiological and socioeconomic factors to create an early warning system. The early warning system relies heavily on the country surveillance system. The lack of timely and high-quality data is critical for developing an effective EWS.Keywords: dengue early warning system, performance, predictive abilities, alarm indicator, dengue prediction
