Bridge Construction Risk Assessment Based on Variable Weight Theory and Cloud Model

Abstract

In order to effectively prevent the occurrence of risky accidents during bridge construction, this study proposes a bridge construction risk assessment method based on variable weight theory and the cloud model theory. Firstly, the fishbone diagram was used to identify risk factors in constructing a bridge construction risk index system. Secondly, according to the cloud model theory, the comment cloud model of each risk index was established by using the forward cloud generator. Finally, the risk factor weights were quantified according to the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IFAHP). Combined with the variable weight theory, a zoning variable weight function was constructed and the weights were reallocated. Through the mutual aggregation of the comment cloud model and weights, the risk level of construction bridges was obtained. The method takes full account of the fuzziness and randomness existing in the evaluation process, optimizes the distribution of weight values of indicators, and uses Delphi iteration to effectively eliminate the subjective defects of individuals. A construction bridge in Changchun was used as an example for risk assessment, and the advance of the method was well verified. The results demonstrate that the method is highly feasible and effective after accuracy verification and sensitivity analysis.

Keywords

• risk assessment
• bridge construction
• cloud model
• intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
• variable weight theory