Identifying Factors Affecting the Survival of Patients with HIV-Associated B-Cell Lymphoma Using a Random Survival Forest Model

Abstract

Background: There have been no reports about the application of random survival forest (RSF) model to predict disease progression of HIV-associated B-cell lymphoma. Methods: A total of 44 patients with HIV-associated B-cell lymphoma who were referred to Nanjing Second Hospital from 2012 to 2019 were included. The RSF model was used to find predictors of survival, and the results of the RSF model were compared with those of the Cox model. The data were analyzed using R software (version 4.1.1). Results: One-, 2-, and 3-year survival rates were 74.5%, 57.7%, and 48.6%, respectively, and the median survival was 59.0 months. The first 3 most important predictors of survival included lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), absolute monocyte count (AMC), and white blood cells (WBCs) count. The median survival of high-risk patients was only 4.0 months. Areas under the curve (AUCs) of the RSF model remained at more than 0.90 at 1, 2, and 3 years. The RSF model displayed a lower prediction error rate (21.9%) than the Cox model (25.4%). Conclusions: Lactate dehydrogenase, AMC, and WBCs count are the most important prognostic predictors for patients with HIV-associated B-cell lymphoma. Much larger prospective and/or multicentre studies are required to validtae this RSF model.