Epidemic Peaks Forecasting on Re-emerging Diseases in Elderly People using the Grey Disaster Model

Abstract

Climate change causes the spread of non-vector diseases due to the influence of climate uncertainty. The elderly group, which is vulnerable, is affected by such disasters. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to forecast epidemic peaks of food poisoning, which was found as one of the re-emerging diseases in elderly people in Khon Kaen Province, Maha Sarakham Province, and Roi Et Province, which are in the Northeastern region of Thailand by using 2 types of Grey Model: GM(1,1) and Discrete Grey Model (DGM). The monthly rate of food poisoning incidence per 100,000 elderly people from January 2017 to December 2020 i.e., 48 months in total were used in the study. The study result revealed that the DGM had higher forecasting effectiveness than that of the GM(1,1) in all three provinces. The food poisoning incidences in elderly people were forecasted to re-emerge from August to September 2021 in Khon Kaen Province, from August to September 2022 in Maha Sarakham Province, and from May to June 2022 in Roi Et Province. The results of this study are useful and helpful for the government, the Ministry of Public Health and related cooperatives to effectively help services planning resource preparation and prevention measures. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-01325 Full Text: PDF

Keywords

• epidemic peaks
• grey disaster model
• re-emerging diseases
• gm(1,1).