Managing Spring rain risks in vineyards: A user-centred approach to identify climate decision triggers in seasonal forecasts

Abstract

In the context of climate risk mitigation strategies seasonal forecasts have been often proposed as a potential climate risk management tool for the wine industry. However, in spite of the recent research advancements, the adoption of climate predictions in strategic decision-making remains complex. This paper aims to support decision-making in the wine sector by providing a methodology to establish the probability thresholds that can trigger a decision based on seasonal forecasts, in an illustrative setting where precipitation occurring in spring could heavily affect the effectiveness of plant protection and canopy management. The results show the probability thresholds obtained for the user involved and the specific decision under three different predicted scenarios. The advantages of this co-production methodology consist in the trust created by the engagement with the user and the high level of tailoring of the analysis performed, posing the basis for user risk profile analysis. The drawbacks lay in the use of a simplified theoretical framework and the need of engaging new users for replication.