Debt Burden on the State Budget: Long-Term Trends and Expenditure Structure Asymmetries

Abstract

The aim of the article is to analyze the long-term debt policy of Ukraine and determine its impact on the structural shifts in the state budget expenditures for public debt servicing. The article justifies the relevance of studying debt burden on the state budget by several aspects: firstly, the debt burden as a consequence of the state debt policy aimed at accumulating additional financial resources through internal and external borrowing; secondly, as a factor in macro-financial, fiscal and monetary stability; thirdly, as a factor of influence on the composition and structure of the state budget expenditures; fourthly, as a factor of influence on the level of tax burden on income (profit) of individuals and legal entities, or national wealth. An empirical analysis of trends concerning the total amount of public debt, expenditures of the State budget of Ukraine for servicing public debt, the structure of expenditures of the State budget of Ukraine in 2005–2019 is carried out. Using the methods of economic and statistical analysis, the regression, regression and correlation models are constructed, and the presence of a very strong inverse relationship) between the size of public debt and the structural changes in the expenditures of the state budget of Ukraine in the direction of reducing costs for economic activities, education, healthcare, spiritual and physical development is proved.

Keywords

• debt burden
• public debt
• public debt servicing costs
• state budget of ukraine
• long-term trends
• correlation and regression analysis