Impact of the behavioral Cycle on Cash Flow Formation

Abstract

This study highlights the mechanisms of the behavioral cycle impact on the cash flows generation. The need to develop original approaches to the analysis of the behavioral cycle associated with the dominant behaviors change demonstrates the relevance of the research. The aim of the study is to determine the mechanism of the behavioral cycle impact on the actions of economic entities. The authors use the method of statistical analysis of the Rosstat data from 1998 to 2018 to test two hypotheses: 1. The behavioral cycle impacts the distribution of household income between consumption, savings, and investment; 2. The actions of economic entities with active behaviors do not always lead to further actions of economic entities with an adaptive and reactive type of behavior. The study examines the structure of the household income use and the dynamics of the index of expected changes in the economic situation in Russia in a year. The behavioral cycle has been shown to have a direct impact on consumption and investments. The economic actions of the entities are influenced by the formed dominant behaviors, as well as the macroeconomic conditions. The authors concluded that the behavioral cycle is not able to change the structural imbalances in the economy, however, it can increase their potential impact, since it facilitates the adoption of certain economic decisions by economic entities and largely determines the dynamics and direction of cash flows in financial markets. The behavioral cycle reflects the moods and expectations of economic entities. The behavioral cycle change occurs due to the significant actions performed by economic entities with active behaviors aimed at changing the external environment. The results of the study demonstrate the feasibility of developing countercyclical mechanisms for smoothing out socially unfavorable outcomes of the activities of economic entities at various phases of the behavioral cycle. The authors propose to monitor the phases of the behavioral cycle based on the analysis of the cash flow generation.

Keywords

• behavioral cycle
• cash flows
• uncertainty
• types of behavior
• economic growth
• bank of russia
• monetary policy