THE ALBANIAN FACTOR OF DESTABILIZATION OF THE WESTERN BALKANS: SCENARIO APPROACH

Abstract

The Albanian factor of the Balkan policy, which received its first institutional design in the late 19th century – “Prizrenskaya League”, is currently a serious destructor of the situation in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro and partially recognized Kosovo).On the basis of historical, demographic, cultural, religious and political facts the article explores the nature of Albanian irredentism and provides a substantiation of the possibility of implementing the scenario of “Albanization”, the development of which can proceed in two directions. In the first case the question is of creating a pan-Albanian (con)federative polity under the provisional name of “Great Albania” in the territories of Albania, Kosovo, western Macedonia (Republic of Ilirida), south-eastern Montenegro (Malesia) and north-western Greece (Chameria). In the second case the question is of the unification of the territories of Albanian residence through the association of Islamic provinces of the countries of the region. Special role in the implementation of the scenario is played by the structures of international terrorism which regard Kosovo as one of the central training zones for militants. Substantiation of the probability of the development and implementation of the scenario is given in four key parameters, including political, economic, military and cultural and religious spheres.Among the main actors of the scenario the author singles out the armed forces of Kosovo, Albanian paramilitary formations on the territory of western Macedonia, transnational corporations, private military companies, as well as the United States, Britain, Turkey and the Arab monarchies who support the project politically and financially.The article concludes that there is a need for an objective political assessment of the situation in the region, an analysis of security threats and risks of another round of destabilization of the Western Balkans. It has not only scientific but also practical implications for the formation of the Russian foreign policy agenda.

Keywords

• «великая албания»