Age-period-cohort analysis of smoking prevalence trends among career military personnel in South Korea

Abstract

Introduction This study evaluated smoking trends among career military personnel in South Korea. After a tobacco tax increase in 2015, the tobacco control program for career military personnel expanded significantly. This study explores longterm smoking trends among career military personnel through age-period-cohort (APC) analysis within the context of targeted tobacco control policies. Methods This secondary data analysis utilized data from 12052 individuals aged 19– –54 years, identified as career military personnel in the Korea Community Health Survey (KCHS) from 2008 to 2022. APC analysis with the intrinsic estimator (IE) method was conducted to address multicollinearity and accurately assess the contributions of age, period, and birth cohort to smoking prevalence. Results Smoking prevalence significantly decreased among career military personnel, from 46.2% in 2008 to 34.1% in 2022. The highest prevalence of smoking was initially observed in the age group of 22–24 years. Although overall prevalence declined, a slight increase was observed in the age group of mid- 30s to early 40s, suggesting that smoking behavior varied across age groups. A significant decrease occurred between 2014 and 2016, with individuals born in the 1970s exhibiting the highest smoking prevalence, and those born after 1980 demonstrating a notably lower smoking prevalence. Conclusions Although smoking prevalence has declined, the distinct age, period, and cohort characteristics of career military personnel necessitate tailored tobacco control policies that consider the various aspects of military life.

Keywords

• military personnel
• age-period-cohort analysis
• smoking prevalence
• intrinsic estimator
• south korea