Evaluation of the European Union-United States oil and petroleum-based fuels trade potential in the context of the negotiated TTIP agreement

Abstract

The article evaluates the European Union-United States oil and petroleum-based fuels trade potential. The planned trade structure and balance according to IEA (International Energy Agency) and IHS (IHS CERA www.ihs.com)) scenarios, the projected volume of imports and exports, and differences in price levels and costs are presented. The projected potential of the trade volume, taking into account the possible impact of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), is also presented. The analysis has shown that the elimination of trade barriers between the European Union and the United States would be more beneficial to US refineries. Due to the higher import tariffs to the EU, the potential benefits of US exporters are higher than those of the EU exporters to the US. This confirms the fears of European negotiators that some aspects of the agreement will have a negative impact on European businesses. However, in the case of petroleum products the TTIP agreement will have a negligible impact on increasing the export volume.