A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach

Abstract

The bomb attacks in Madrid three days before the general elections of March 14, 2004, and their possible influence on the victory of PSOE (Spanish Workers Socialist Party), defeating PP (Popular Party), have been a matter of study from several points of view (i.e., sociological, political, or statistical). In this paper, we present a dynamic model based on a system of differential equations such that it, using data from Spanish CIS (National Center of Sociological Research), describes the evolution of voting intention of the Spanish people over time. Using this model, we conclude that the probability is very low that the PSOE would have won had the attack not happened. Moreover, after the attack, the PSOE increased an average of 5.6% in voting on March 14 and an average of 11.2% of the Spanish people changed their vote between March 11 and March 14. These figures are in accordance with other studies.