Time series analysis of climate variability and trends in Kashmir Himalaya

Abstract

The Himalayan region, due to its fragile ecology, is extremely vulnerable to even small perturbations in climate that might not only affect the pristine ecosystems but also the socioeconomic sectors across the mountain arc. In this study, we analyzed the climate variability and trends of change in precipitation and temperature for Kashmir Himalaya between 1980 and 2017. Investigations were carried out for six meteorological stations located within Kashmir valley. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was used for significance of trends in precipitation and temperature data on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales, while Sen’s non-parametric estimator of the slope was used to estimate the magnitude of trend. The results obtained indicate that the Kashmir region receives about 72% annual precipitation from Western Disturbances (WD) and 28% from Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). The influence of ISM was higher towards south Kashmir, while north Kashmir was mostly influenced by western disturbances. The contribution of ISM to total rainfall recorded a 10% increase for the time series. With noticeable inter-station variations, our results indicate statistically significant positive trends for both TMax (p < 0.05) and TMin (p < 0.01) across Kashmir valley. The station-wise deviation of observed temperature with the lapse-rate projected temperatures for 5 stations also showed deviation. On an annual scale, the TMax and TMin for the region have increased by 0.035 °C and 0.022 °C, indicating that increase is more in the case of TMax. Analysis of precipitation revealed a non-significant positive trend, with an annual increase of 0.4 mm a−1. Insignificant increasing trends were also observed during autumn, winter, and spring. On contrary, non-significant decreasing trends in precipitation were observed during summer. The station-wise precipitation variations were more evident for Kokernag and Qazigund which recorded increasing precipitation (p < 0.01), while Srinagar, Kupwara, and Pahalgam did not show any significant trend, and Gulmarg recorded a decreasing trend for precipitation. This shifting pattern in precipitation could have serious environmental implications that will greatly influence the food security and ecological sustainability of the region.

Keywords

• Climate variability
• Kashmir Valley
• Mann–Kendall test
• Precipitation trends