A system dynamic model for natural gas safety supply and demand balance mechanism

Abstract

Abstract The security of natural gas supply and demand has always been an important topic, and as a result, analyzing and predicting the supply and demand of natural gas has received considerable attention from researchers. Numerous studies have extensively researched the supply and demand of natural gas. The main purpose of this study is to explore the supply‐demand balance mechanism for natural gas security. A system dynamics model is constructed to assess the supply and demand of natural gas in Sichuan Province, China. A new system dynamics model based on domestic gas, production gas, ecological environment and natural gas supply is proposed. The study considers four scenarios: natural development, economic priority development, environmental priority development and coordinated development. The results show that the rapid economic development has led to an excessive environmental carrying capacity, a larger gap between natural gas supply and demand, a decline in the quality of life of residents, and even affected the energy security of Sichuan Province and China. The findings also show that people's overprotection of the environment can lead to slow economic development, which prevents it from achieving its desired goals. The coordinated development scenario in this paper not only ensures the production of natural gas and the quality of life of residents, but also is an optimal scheme with low energy consumption and pollution. According to the research conclusions, considering the overall situation of China's energy security and the situation in Sichuan Province, the author proposes reforms from the supply and demand sides of natural gas.

Keywords

• natural gas
• supply and demand security
• sustainable development
• system dynamics