An adaptive cycle resilience perspective to understand the regime shifts of social-ecological system interactions over the past two millennia in the Tarim River Basin
Shunke Wang,
Jie Xue,
Zhiwei Zhang,
Huaiwei Sun,
Xinxin Li,
Jingjing Chang,
Xin Liu,
Luchen Yao
Affiliations
Shunke Wang
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, 848300, Xinjiang, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Jie Xue
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, 848300, Xinjiang, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; Corresponding author.
Zhiwei Zhang
College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Tibet Agriculture & Animal Husbandry University, Nyingchi, 860000, China
Huaiwei Sun
School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, Hubei, China
Xinxin Li
Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, 848300, Xinjiang, China
Jingjing Chang
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, 848300, Xinjiang, China; College of Ecology and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
Xin Liu
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China; Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, 848300, Xinjiang, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Luchen Yao
Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, 848300, Xinjiang, China
Socio-ecological systems (SESs) in arid regions have experienced multiple transformations throughout history due to human activities and natural forces. However, few studies have used the resilience cycle model to explain the resilience status and determinants of SESs over the past two millennia. This study proposes the adaptive cycle resilience (ACR) perspective to investigate regime shifts of socio-ecological system interactions in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) over the past two millennia. An ACR framework combining a piecewise linear regression model (PLR), ACR theory, and physical resilience models has been built to assess and quantify socio-ecological system resilience. Key indicators such as climate variability, settlement numbers, war frequency, glacier accumulation, and oasis area changes are identified and quantified to evaluate SESs adaptability and transformability. Glacier accumulation serves as a proxy for long-term climate change, while oasis area changes reflect the direct impact of human activities and environmental feedback on ecosystem productivity. Population and war indicators provide insights into social system stability and the impact of conflicts on SESs dynamics. The findings reveal that the 7th century and 1850s are critical points of regime shifts in the ACR. 200s BC-350s AD and 700s AD-900s AD are in the forward loop (r-K) period of the ACR. 350s AD-700s AD and 900s AD-1850s AD are the adaptive resilience backward loop (Ω-α) phase. Assessing the historical socio-ecological system resilience and identifying key transition points can inform proactive measures to mitigate potential regime shifts. Combining historical data with resilience theory provides a deep understanding of the ACR of SESs and their driving factors. This enriches the theoretical understanding of SESs and offers a robust case study for future resilience assessments and scenario analyses in arid regions.
