Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data

Shi Zhao; Peihua Cao; Daozhou Gao; Zian Zhuang; Weiming Wang; Jinjun Ran; Kai Wang; Lin Yang; Mohammad R. Einollahi; Yijun Lou; Daihai He; Maggie H. Wang

Infectious Disease Modelling (Jun 2022)

Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data

Shi Zhao,
Peihua Cao,
Daozhou Gao,
Zian Zhuang,
Weiming Wang,
Jinjun Ran,
Kai Wang,
Lin Yang,
Mohammad R. Einollahi,
Yijun Lou,
Daihai He,
Maggie H. Wang

Affiliations

Shi Zhao: JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China; Corresponding author. JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Peihua Cao: Clinical Research Centre, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
Daozhou Gao: Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China
Zian Zhuang: Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Weiming Wang: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China; Corresponding author.
Jinjun Ran: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
Kai Wang: Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China
Lin Yang: School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Mohammad R. Einollahi: School of Computer Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran
Yijun Lou: Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Daihai He: Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China; Corresponding author.
Maggie H. Wang: JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 7, no. 2
pp. 189 – 195

Abstract

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The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7–7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.

Published in Infectious Disease Modelling

ISSN: 2468-0427 (Online)
Publisher: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
Country of publisher: China
LCC subjects: Medicine: Internal medicine: Infectious and parasitic diseases
Website: https://www.keaipublishing.com/en/journals/infectious-disease-modelling/

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