Fractional unit-root tests allowing for a fractional frequency flexible Fourier form trend: predictability of Covid-19

Abstract

Abstract In this study we propose a fractional frequency flexible Fourier form fractionally integrated ADF unit-root test, which combines the fractional integration and nonlinear trend as a form of the Fourier function. We provide the asymptotics of the newly proposed test and investigate its small-sample properties. Moreover, we show the best estimators for both fractional frequency and fractional difference operator for our newly proposed test. Finally, an empirical study demonstrates that not considering the structural break and fractional integration simultaneously in the testing process may lead to misleading results about the stochastic behavior of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Keywords

• Structural break
• Stochastic fractional difference equation
• Stationarity
• Covid-19 forecast