Prediction of Hourly Global Solar Radiation: Comparison of Neural Networks / Bootstrap Aggregating

Abstract

This research work explores the use of single neural networks and bootstrap aggregated neural networks for predicting hourly global solar radiation. A database of 3606 data points were from the Renewable Energies Development Center, radiometric station ‘Shems’ of Bouzareah. The single neural networks and bootstrap aggregated neural networks were built together. The precision and durability of neural network models generated with an incomplete quantity of training datasets were improved using bootstrap aggregated neural networks. To produce numerous sets of training data points, the training data was re-sampled utilising bootstrap resampling by replacement. A neural network model was built for each of the data points. The individual neural network models were then combined to produce the bootstrap aggregated neural networks. The experimental and predicted values of global solar radiation were compared, and lower root mean squared errors (68.3968 and 62.4856 Wh m−2) were discovered during the testing phases for single neural networks and bootstrap aggregated neural networks, respectively. The results of these models show that the bootstrap aggregated neural networks model is more accurate and robust than single neural networks.

Keywords

• prediction
• hourly global solar radiation
• neural networks
• bootstrap aggregating