A Study of Seismic Macroeconomic Losses Based on Monte Carlo Method—Take Tangshan City as an Example

Abstract

The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate seismic sequences. For each earthquake in the sequence, the ground motion parameters of each site are calculated by the attenuation relationship, which is introduced into the vulnerability of the macroeconomic with GDP loss as an indicator. The model gives the exceeding probability curve of macroeconomic losses. This method provides a straightforward way to estimate the level of economic loss of a city in future earthquakes. It is of great importance to decision-making reference for formulating the corresponding earthquake prevention and mitigation countermeasures at present stage, and also provides a reference for insurance companies to determine the rates.

Keywords

• Monte Carlo method
• macroeconomic vulnerability model
• exceeding probability curve