B2C E-Commerce Customer Churn Prediction Based on K-Means and SVM

Abstract

Customer churn prediction is very important for e-commerce enterprises to formulate effective customer retention measures and implement successful marketing strategies. According to the characteristics of longitudinal timelines and multidimensional data variables of B2C e-commerce customers’ shopping behaviors, this paper proposes a loss prediction model based on the combination of k-means customer segmentation and support vector machine (SVM) prediction. The method divides customers into three categories and determines the core customer groups. The support vector machine and logistic regression were compared to predict customer churn. The results show that each prediction index after customer segmentation was significantly improved, which proves that k-means clustering segmentation is necessary. The accuracy of the SVM prediction was higher than that of the logistic regression prediction. These research results have significance for customer relationship management of B2C e-commerce enterprises.

Keywords

• B2C e-commerce customer
• k-means
• logistic regression
• SVM
• customer churn