Drought risk assessment on arid region under different socioeconomic scenarios: A case of Loess Plateau, China

Abstract

Quantitative understanding of drought risks on arid region is vital in drought risk mitigation and ecological restoration. However, no study has been conducted on the drought risk variance between different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and China’s dual carbon goals scenario on arid region. This study evaluates drought risks of Loess Plateau between the year of 1980–2100 based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 data sets and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction drought risk assessment framework. The average values of the drought risk index in four scenarios during the projection period (2030–2100) are 0.29 (±0.026) for the low carbon emission scenario, 0.257 (±0.019) for the China’s dual carbon target scenario, 0.232 (±0.057) for the medium carbon emission scenario, and 0.248 (±0.059) for the high carbon emission scenario, which are higher than the historical period (i.e. 1980: 0.210; 2020: 0.215). Accordingly, the Loess Plateau will have severe drought risks in the future. In the zone of increased drought risk indices on the Loess Plateau, the areas of woodland and croplands increased, whereas the area of grasslands increased in the zone of decreased drought risk indices. China’s dual carbon goals (i.e. SSP1-2.6) scenario has the smallest degree of variability in drought risk, which is the most reliable pathway of across the four scenarios. We emphasize the potential of spatial planning based on regional characteristics and creating ecological buffer zones for endemic biome habitats to address the uncertainty of drought risk in arid and semi-arid regions like the Loess Plateau.

Keywords

• Drought
• Water
• Markov-CARS Model
• LUCC
• CMIP6