Simulation of Northern Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex Regimes in CESM2-WACCM

Abstract

The possible impact of various Arctic polar vortex regimes for the stratosphere on the Northern Hemisphere extratropics has not been fully understood. Previous study has classified the stratospheric Arctic vortex to six regimes using the k-mean clustering algorithm based on the ERA5 reanalysis. The stability and robustness of the classification is further verified with a much longer model dataset and historical integrations from CESM2-WACCM. Consistent with the reanalysis, we clustered the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex forms into six patterns, named as homogeneously-intensified and -weakened regimes (HI, HW), North America-intensified and -weakened regimes (NAI, HAW), and Eurasia-intensified and -weakened regimes (EUI, EUW). A zonally uniform positive (negative) Northern Annular Mode (NAM) pattern develops during the HI (HW) regime from the stratosphere to troposphere. The NAM-like pattern shifts toward the western hemisphere with the largest negative (positive) anomalous height center shifting to North America during the NAI (NAW) regime. In contrast, the maximum polar anomaly center moves towards polar Eurasia during the EUI (EUW) regime. The HI, NAI, and EUW regimes are accompanied with weakened wave activities, while the HW, NAW, and EUI regimes are preceded by enhanced planetary waves. Accordingly, persistent anomalies of warmth (coldness) exist over midlatitude Eurasia and North America during the HI (HW). Anomalous warmth (coldness) centers exist in northern Eurasia, while anomalous coldness (warmth) centers exist around the Mediterranean Sea during the NAI (NAW) regime. Anomalous warmth (coldness) centers develop in East Asia in the EUI (EUW) periods. The rainfall anomaly distributions also vary with the stratospheric polar vortex regime. The frequency for stratospheric regimes during SSWs and strong vortex events is also assessed and consistent with previous findings.

Keywords

• stratospheric polar vortex
• regimes
• CESM2-WACCM
• eddy heat flux