The National Bank of Ukraine Communication Strategy Optimization within the Framework of Impact on Exchange Rate Expectations of Economic Agents

Abstract

An important challenge in terms of smoothing excessive exchange rate volatility under the conditions of flexible exchange rate arrangement is optimization of the communication strategy of the country’s monetary regulator. Over the past two decades, communication (information support) has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. Communication enables influence of the volatility of financial markets, improvement of the predictability of monetary policy, and helps to achieve macroeconomic objectives. Nevertheless, as of today, consensus on the issue into what the optimal strategy of the central bank communication is has not been reached, either in Ukraine, nor in developed countries yet. Considering the abovementioned, the methodical approaches to improve the central bank’s communication strategies, based on the use of its verbal interventions in the context of smoothing out excessive cyclical volatility of exchange rates of the national currency, are determined in this article. It is suggested to consider the growth of the factor “information signal/information noise” as a criterion of the central bank’s optimal communication strategy. It is proved that the monetary regulator’s main task should be the continual provision of information concerning a fundamentally justified level of the exchange rate and the level of deviation of the actual rate of the national currency from its fundamental-equilibrium level, as of a given time, to the national foreign exchange market participants. The methodological approach to the improvement of information support of forecasting fundamentally specified value of the national currency is outlined.

Keywords

• exchange rate expectations
• communication
• verbal intervention
• devaluation
• revaluation
• fundamental value