Türkiye Maden Sektörü İhracatına Konjonktürel Faktörlerin Etkisi(The Impact of Cyclical Factors on The Export of Mining Industry in Turkey)

Abstract

The main purpose of the study is to analyze the cyclical fluctuations experienced in the export of mining industry in Turkey for the period over 1992-2013, and evaluate the development processes of the sector’s export by analyzing the economic factors behind these fluctuations. For this purpose, by using monthly and yearly time series data related to sector’s export, the estimated trend function is calculated by performing linear and quadratic regression analyses by the method of ordinary least squares. The results revealed that the estimated export trend function is a quadratic. According to the findings, it seems that the export of the sector rises and falls irregularly, it is also seen that these fluctuations have gained the stability especially for the pre-2000 period. This situation indicates that the export of the mining sector is affected from both internal and external many political and economic factors and that somehow it has been unable to stabilize in this period. After the 2000s, due to relatively stable and successful economic management, internal cyclical fluctuations are occurred at lower level. The most important cyclical fluctuation occurred in this period (after 2000s) is 2008 global financial crisis, which is an external phenomenon; in subsequent two years the export of the Turkish mining sector declined 22 percent

Keywords

• Mining
• Mining Sector
• Export
• Cyclical Fluctuations
• Turkey