A study of structural changes influence on Russian economy

Abstract

It is presented the experience of identifying a simple dynamic model of the economy by statistical data of Russia in the early 2000s. As a result the end time of the growth due to loading of existing production capacities and the beginning time of transition to their structural changes have been determined. It is shown that to describe the ongoing processes, it is necessary to build an economic model with differentiated by age production assets. It is demonstrated the use of the identification sets method for analysis of forecast stability on this economic model. The result of the analysis is a conclusion that a transition from an unstable state to an economic growth regime by the expense of informed decisions.

Keywords

• динамическая модель экономики
• структурные изменения
• возрастное распределение производственных фондов
• метод множеств идентификации