Frontiers in Public Health (Jan 2024)
Assessing the impact of COVID-19 interventions on the hand, foot and mouth disease in Guangdong Province, China: a Bayesian modeling study
- Li Zhang,
- Li Zhang,
- Fen Yang,
- Fen Yang,
- Zhihua Zhu,
- Weilin Zeng,
- Zuhua Rong,
- Jianxiong Hu,
- Xing Li,
- Jianguo Zhao,
- Biao Zeng,
- Biao Zeng,
- Yihan Li,
- Yihan Li,
- Yi Quan,
- Yi Quan,
- Qian Zhang,
- Qian Zhang,
- Zitong Huang,
- Zitong Huang,
- Yuye Li,
- Xing Huang,
- Xing Huang,
- Wenyuan Zheng,
- Wenyuan Zheng,
- Jiaqing Xu,
- Jiaqing Xu,
- Yan Li,
- Yan Li,
- Qing Chen,
- Jianpeng Xiao,
- Jianpeng Xiao,
- Meng Zhang,
- Meng Zhang
Affiliations
- Li Zhang
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- Li Zhang
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Fen Yang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Fen Yang
- Guangdong Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Zhihua Zhu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Weilin Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Zuhua Rong
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Jianxiong Hu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Xing Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Jianguo Zhao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Biao Zeng
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Biao Zeng
- Guangdong Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Yihan Li
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- Yihan Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Yi Quan
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- Yi Quan
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Qian Zhang
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Qian Zhang
- School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China
- Zitong Huang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Zitong Huang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
- Yuye Li
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Xing Huang
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- Xing Huang
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Wenyuan Zheng
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Wenyuan Zheng
- School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China
- Jiaqing Xu
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Jiaqing Xu
- School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, China
- Yan Li
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Yan Li
- Guangdong Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Qing Chen
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- Jianpeng Xiao
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- Jianpeng Xiao
- Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Meng Zhang
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- Meng Zhang
- Guangdong Workstation for Emerging Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1307321
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 11
Abstract
BackgroundThe non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 may have affected the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). We aimed to assess the impact of the NPIs on HFMD in the high epidemic area of HFMD, Guangdong Province.MethodsThe data of HFMD cases, etiological information, and meteorological factors in Guangdong from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2021, were collected. Using a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model integrated counterfactual framework, we assessed the effect of NPIs on HFMD by different intervention periods, populations (gender, age, occupation), and cities. We further explored the correlation between the reduction of HFMD and socioeconomic factors in 21 cities.ResultsA total of 351,217 HFMD cases were reported and 455,327 cases were averted in Guangdong Province during 2020–2021 with a reduction of 84.94% (95%CI: 81.63–87.22%) in 2020 and 29.49% (95%CI: 15.26–39.54%) in 2021. The impact of NPIs on HFMD differed by age and gender. The effects of NPIs were more remarkable for children aged 0–2 years and scattered children. We found that the relative reductions in 21 cities were related to the composition ratio of children and COVID-19 incidence.ConclusionThe reduction of HFMD incidence was significantly associated with COVID-19 NPIs, and school closure was an effective intervention to prevent HFMD outbreaks. Our findings will contribute to the development of HFMD prevention and control measures.
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