Import and export resilience of the global oil trade network

Abstract

Given the economic and geopolitical importance of oil, it is important to understand the resilience of the global oil trade network to shocks. In this paper, the aim is to analyze the global oil trade network structure and its resilience to shocks. First, the structure of the global oil trade network between 178 countries is determined. Second, the stability degree of all countries in oil export and import networks is calculated based on diversity principles. Third, we develop an index to estimate the effective share of each country in oil trade networks. The effective share index combines the country’s efficiency and trade share in crude oil trade networks. Finally, a resilience measure is introduced to simultaneously capture a country’s stability and effective share within the network. Results show that China, USA, India, Republic of Korea, Taiwan (China), Germany and Italy have a high level of instability while playing a significant role in the network, which yields a reduction in the import-side network resilience. Also, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya reduce the resilience of the global oil trade network on the export side. This is because when these countries experience instability, it affects their ability to produce and export oil, which in turn affects the global oil trade network.

Keywords

• Global oil trade
• Resilience
• Network efficiency
• Complex network analysis