Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis

Abstract

Methods for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis were implemented. The probability of a collision was assessed using two methods: the Monte Carlo method, and the second one, utilizing a ratio between the interval of values of orbital elements, leading to a collision, and the confidence intervals of orbital elements. It was established that the variation in the semimajor axis makes the main contribution to the estimation of the impact probability. The expected date and the estimate of the probability of collision of asteroid Apophis and Earth were computed.

Keywords

• asteroid apophis
• impact probability
• orbital elements
• monte carlo method