The Fractal Analysis of the Dynamics of International Arrivals in Tourism

Abstract

The article sets the task of determining the global and local fractal characteristics of the time series characterizing the development of international tourism, in order to identify the peculiarities of the dynamics of their evolution, properties of self-similarity, trend-tolerance, presence of «memory effect». As a result of research the properties of trends of international arrivals in the world, Europe and the Middle East are identified. It was also possible to identify the cyclicity of these processes and define the length of the cycle for the European region and for the world as a whole. In addition, a high dependence of tourism development on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East region is determined.

Keywords

• international tourism
• fractality
• persistence
• normalized scale
• Hirst indicator
• V-statistics