Variations in Rainfall Structure of Western North Pacific Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Warming Climates

Abstract

Abstract Observations and climate projections suggest a larger increase in tropical cyclone (TC)‐induced rainfall than that can be explained by the Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship of 7% increase in vapor content for each 1°C degree rise in temperature. However, these studies using diverse data sources and methods over various periods show inconsistencies regarding the location of this increase ‐ whether in the TC inner core or outer regions ‐ and offer differing explanations for the reported trends. This study uses the Pseudo‐global warming methodology on simulations of 117 western North Pacific TCs making landfall in Southeast Asia to investigate changes in TC rainfall structure by the end of the century under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP3‐7.0 scenarios. Specifically, it tests the sensitivity of changing trends to various analysis methods used in previous studies and identifies the underlying physical mechanisms driving these changes. The findings indicate an amplified increase in rainfall in the TC inner core across all future scenarios, along with potentially decreased rainfall in the outer region under certain future climate conditions. Among TC categories, Supertyphoons exhibit the most significant increased rainfall across future states. Changes in TC primary and secondary circulations, TC structure, and the convergence of heat and moisture are the main factors shaping future rainfall patterns, outweighing the effects of changes in atmospheric and convective stability.

Keywords

• tropical cyclone
• climate change
• rainfall
• future climates
• modeling
• Pseudo‐global warming