Weather and Climate Extremes (Sep 2024)
Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).
- Natacha B. Bernier,
- Mark Hemer,
- Nobuhito Mori,
- Christian M. Appendini,
- Oyvind Breivik,
- Ricardo de Camargo,
- Mercè Casas-Prat,
- Trang Minh Duong,
- Ivan D. Haigh,
- Tom Howard,
- Vanessa Hernaman,
- Oleksandr Huizy,
- Jennifer L. Irish,
- Ebru Kirezci,
- Nadao Kohno,
- Jun-Whan Lee,
- Kathleen L. McInnes,
- Elke M.I. Meyer,
- Marta Marcos,
- Reza Marsooli,
- Ariadna Martin Oliva,
- Melisa Menendez,
- Saeed Moghimi,
- Sanne Muis,
- Jeff A. Polton,
- William J. Pringle,
- Roshanka Ranasinghe,
- Thomas Saillour,
- Grant Smith,
- Michael Getachew Tadesse,
- Val Swail,
- Shimura Tomoya,
- Evangelos Voukouvalas,
- Thomas Wahl,
- Pengcheng Wang,
- Ralf Weisse,
- Joannes J. Westerink,
- Ian Young,
- Y. Joseph Zhang
Affiliations
- Natacha B. Bernier
- Meteorological Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada; Corresponding author.
- Mark Hemer
- CSIRO Environment, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- Nobuhito Mori
- Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan
- Christian M. Appendini
- Laboratorio de Ingeniería y Procesos Costeros, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Sisal, Yucatan, Mexico
- Oyvind Breivik
- Division for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Norway
- Ricardo de Camargo
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil
- Mercè Casas-Prat
- Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Trang Minh Duong
- IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands; University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands; Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands
- Ivan D. Haigh
- National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, UK
- Tom Howard
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy, Exeter, UK
- Vanessa Hernaman
- Coastal Extremes Modelling and Projections, CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Australia
- Oleksandr Huizy
- Canadian Centre for Meteorological and Environmental Prediction, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Jennifer L. Irish
- Center for Coastal Studies and Civil & Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, USA
- Ebru Kirezci
- Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
- Nadao Kohno
- Meteorological Research Institute, Meteorological Agency, Japan
- Jun-Whan Lee
- Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
- Kathleen L. McInnes
- CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, Australia
- Elke M.I. Meyer
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Institute of Coastal Systems, Geesthacht, Germany
- Marta Marcos
- Department of Physics of the University of the Balearic Islands and a researcher at the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA), Spain
- Reza Marsooli
- Department of Civil, Environmental, and Ocean Engineering, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA
- Ariadna Martin Oliva
- Department of Civil, Environmental & Construction Engineering and National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, USA
- Melisa Menendez
- Environmental Hydraulic Institute (IHCantabria), Spain
- Saeed Moghimi
- NOS Storm Surge Modeling Team Lead, Coastal Marine Modeling Branch, Coast Survey Development Laboratory, Office of Coast Survey at NOAA National Ocean Service, USA
- Sanne Muis
- Deltares, Delft, Netherlands & Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Jeff A. Polton
- National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK
- William J. Pringle
- Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, USA
- Roshanka Ranasinghe
- IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands; University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands; Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands
- Thomas Saillour
- European Commission, Directorate-General Joint Research Centre Disaster Risk Management Unit, Ispra, Italy
- Grant Smith
- Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
- Michael Getachew Tadesse
- Hazen and Sawyer, Orlando, FL, USA
- Val Swail
- Climate Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Shimura Tomoya
- Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan
- Evangelos Voukouvalas
- Unisystems Luxembourg SARL, Bertrange, Luxembourg
- Thomas Wahl
- Department of Civil, Environmental & Construction Engineering and National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, USA
- Pengcheng Wang
- Meteorological Research Division, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
- Ralf Weisse
- Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Institute of Coastal Systems, Geesthacht, Germany
- Joannes J. Westerink
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, USA
- Ian Young
- Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Australia
- Y. Joseph Zhang
- Virginia Institute of Marine Science, USA
- Journal volume & issue
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Vol. 45
p. 100689
Abstract
Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.
