Evaluating Natural Climate Solutions in Long-Term Climate Strategies: Opportunities for Enhanced Mitigation Across the European Union

Abstract

Effective national strategies must be carefully planned in advance to position the land sector as a pivotal contributor to achieving the 2050 climate neutrality target set by the European Union (EU) under the Paris Agreement. Governments define their pathways to achieve the climate goals through the long-term low emission development strategies (LTSs), which describe policies and measures for a just and socially fair transition to low greenhouse gas. This paper explores the natural climate solutions foreseen by the available twenty-five LTSs in the EU to assess each country’s use and potential of land mitigation. Subsequently, it evaluates if better planning is possible to increase carbon storage and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We found that most of the analyzed twenty-five EU countries envisage a wide set of natural climate solutions, demonstrating an understand of importance of land policies and measures to meet their climate targets. Sustainable forest management, agroforestry, and healthy and sustainable diets emerge as solutions mostly reported and with the largest mitigation potential across the EU, albeit with large variability among countries. However, some countries could further harness the potential for mitigation in the land sector. This study highlights how some countries could improve their LTSs, accounting for their specific land mitigation potential.

Keywords

• agriculture forestry and other land uses
• long-term strategy
• natural climate solutions
• agroforestry
• climate neutrality