Türkiye’de Turizm Sektörüne Sağlanan Teşviklerin Turizm Talebi Üzerindeki Etkisi: Yapısal Kırılmalı Bir Analiz(The Impact on Tourism Demand of the Incentives Provided to the Tourism Sector in Turkey: An Analysis with Structural Break)

Abstract

In this study, the aim is to analyze the impact of incentives provided to the tourism sector in Turkey between 2004 and 2018 on tourism demand. In this study, the dependent variable used in the models is net tourism income while the independent variables are incentive employment toward tourism, incentive fixed investment and incentive documents for tourism. For this purpose, the cointegration relationship between the variables has been tested by Gregory and Hansen (1996) and Hatemi-j (2008) cointegration test which allowed structural breaks. Additionally, Toda-Yamamoto (1995) causality analysis has been performed in the presence of structural break. According to the results, it has been determined that the series acted together in the long term. According to the causality analysis result, there is a bi-directional causality relationship among the fixed investments, the number of documents and employment.

Keywords

• tourism demand
• investment i̇ncentives
• cointegration analysis with structural breaks
• causality analysis