Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup

Abstract

Total water levels (TWLs), including the contribution of wind waves, associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most damaging hazards faced by coastal communities. TC-induced economic losses are expected to increase because of stronger TC intensity, sea level rise, and increased populations along the coasts. TC intensity, translation speed, and distance to the coast affect the magnitude and duration of increased TWLs and wind waves. Under climate change, the proportion of high-intensity TCs is projected to increase globally, whereas the variation pattern of TC translation speed also depends on the ocean basin and latitude. There is an urgent need to improve our understanding of the linkages between TC characteristics and TWL components. In the past few years, hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020) propagated over the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) with similar paths but resulted in different coastal impacts. We combined in situ observations and numerical simulations with the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to analyze the extreme TWLs under the three TCs. Model verification showed that the TWL components were well reproduced by the present model setup. Our results showed that the peak storm surge and the peak wave runup depended mainly on the TC intensity, the distance to the TC eye, and the TC heading direction. A decrease in TC translation speed primarily led to longer exceedance durations of TWLs, which may result in more severe economic losses. Wave-dependent water level components (i.e., wave setup and wave swash) were found to dominate the peak TWL within the near-TC field. Our results also showed that in specific conditions, the prestorm wave runup associated with the TC-induced swell may lead to TWLs higher than at the peak of the storm. This was the case along the SAB during Hurricane Isaias. Isaias's fast TC translation speed and the fact that its swell was not blocked by any islands were the main factors contributing to these peak TWLs ahead of the storm peak.