Risk Management and Healthcare Policy (Mar 2023)
A Prediction Nomogram for Recurrent Retinal Detachment
Abstract
Yongying Zhou,1,2 Qianyi Lu,1 Zhigang Chen,1 Peirong Lu1 1Department of Ophthalmology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Ophthalmology, Children’s Hospital of Wujiang District, Suzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Peirong Lu, Department of Ophthalmology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Shizi Street 188, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, 215006, People’s Republic of China, Email [email protected]: Recurrent retinal detachment (re-RD) is one of the complications in rhegmatogenous retinal detachment patients who underwent surgical treatment. We investigated the risk factors for re-RD and developed a nomogram for estimating clinical risk.Methods: Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models were performed to determine the association between variables and re-RD, and a nomogram was then developed for re-RD. The nomogram performance was assessed based on its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.Results: This study analyzed 15 potential variables of re-RD in 403 rhegmatogenous retinal detachment patients who underwent initial surgical treatment. Axial length, inferior breaks, retinal break diameter, and surgical methods were independent risk factors for re-RD. A clinical nomogram incorporating these four independent risk factors was constructed. The diagnostic performance of the nomogram was excellent (area under the curve = 0.892, 95% CI: 0.831– 0.953). Our study further validated this nomogram by bootstrapping for 500 repetitions. The area under the curve of the bootstrap model was 0.797 (95% CI: 0.712– 0.881). This model showed good calibration curve fitting and a positive net benefit in decision curve analysis.Conclusion: Axial length, inferior breaks, retinal break diameter, and surgical methods could be risk factors for re-RD. We have developed a prediction nomogram of re-RD for rhegmatogenous retinal detachment following initial surgical treatment.Keywords: recurrent retinal detachment, nomogram, risk factors
