Projection of extreme climatic events related to frequency over different regions of Tanzania

Abstract

In recent years, extreme climatic events such as heavy rainfall and droughts are common and have contributed to the loss of lives, damage of properties, destruction of the environment and socio-economic livelihood of people predominantly in many developing countries. Characterizing these events to understand their temporal and spatial evolution is of great considerable benefit to different sectors; for instance, energy, agriculture, health and water resource sectors. In this study, we use the outputs of regional climate models to characterize the temporal and spatial evolution of extreme climatic events over Tanzania. Results reveal that all regions across Tanzania are projected to experience a statistically significant increased frequency of extreme climatic events related to temperatures. However, the frequency of extreme climatic events related to rainfall is projected to increase at a non-significant level across most regions. The presented increase in extreme climatic events is likely to pose significant damage to the agriculture sector, water sector and other socio-economic livelihoods of people over many regions in Tanzania. It is therefore recommended that appropriate policies should be put in place to help different sectors and communities at large to adapt to the projected increase in extreme climatic events, especially on the projected warming of near-surface temperatures. HIGHLIGHTS For the first time in Tanzania, this paper analyzes the future extreme climatic events using outputs from the high-resolution regional climate model.; The paper analyzes the trends in an extreme event to discover the statistical significance of the extremes.; The observed results could help the agriculture sector in Tanzania, which is challenged by severe increased changes in temperatures.; The output could help postharvest.;

Keywords

• cordex
• extreme climatic indices
• mann–kendall trend
• regional climate models