Demand Side Management for the Energy-Efficient Future of Pakistan Using a Low Emission Analysis Platform

Abstract

The energy demand in Pakistan is escalating owing to the growing population, rapid urbanization, and industrial growth. Therefore, the development and execution of Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EE&C) policies and initiatives are critical for the Government in order to enhance energy efficiency and to address the country’s increasing energy demand. In this study, the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) tool is used to develop and analyze the effects of load control, energy efficiency, and conservation-based measures. Based on the policy analysis and energy consumption patterns, macro-economic modeling has been undertaken using LEAP for the study period 2020–2050. The two scenarios developed are Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Demand-Side-Management (DSM). The model results forecast 1910.2 TWh electricity demand by 2050 under the BAU scenario, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, which is eighteen times greater than energy demand in the base year. The sustainable electricity generation path followed under the DSM scenario ensures a lower demand of 1597.5 TWh and an average annual growth rate of 4.5%. This scenario will reduce energy use by 16% compared to the BAU scenario. Therefore, it is proposed that policy may be envisaged using infrastructural and consumer engagement approaches to encourage DSM development in Pakistan. The proposed LEAP model can be used to undertake the supply policy selection and demand assumption for future power production in Pakistan.

Keywords

• sustainable energy development
• demand-side management
• forecasting
• energy planning & policy recommendation
• LEAP