Medium- and Long-Term Wind-Power Forecasts, Considering Regional Similarities

Abstract

Accurate and efficient medium- and long-term forecasts of wind power can provide technical support for the efficient development and utilization of wind resources. Considering the regional characteristics of wind resources, the regional-similarity factor was introduced into the study of wind-power forecasting, and, to assess the long-term dependence of wind power, the long-short-term-memory method was selected for medium- and long-term forecasting of wind-power trends in a case study carried out in Northwest China. The results showed that the forecasting error of the presented method was reduced by an average of 20.80%, compared with the forecasting of individual stations, which verified the effectiveness of considering the regional characteristics in wind-resource prediction. Different area-division methods resulted in different effects on prediction accuracy. This study provides a new approach and a reference for medium- and long-term wind-resource prediction.

Keywords

• wind power
• medium- and long-term forecast
• LSTM
• regional characteristics
• Northwest China