Examining a 12-year experience within Kazakhstan’s national heart transplantation program

Abstract

Abstract Kazakhstan has one of the lowest heart transplantation (HTx) rates globally, but there are no studies evaluating the outcomes of HTx. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the national HTx program over a 12-year period (2012–2023). Survival analysis of the national HTx cohort was conducted using life tables, Kaplan‒Meier curves, and Cox regression methods. Time series analysis was applied to analyze historical trends in HTx per million population (pmp) and to make future projections until 2030. The number of patients awaiting HTx in Kazakhstan was evaluated with a regional breakdown. The pmp rates of HTx ranged from 0.06 to 1.08, with no discernible increasing trend. Survival analysis revealed a rapid decrease in the first year after HTx, reaching 77.0% at 379 days, with an overall survival rate of 58.1% at the end of the follow-up period. Among the various factors analyzed, recipient blood levels of creatinine and total bilirubin before surgery, as well as the presence of infection or sepsis and the use of ECMO after surgery, were found to be significant contributors to the survival of HTx patients. There is a need for public health action to improve the HTx programme.

Keywords

• Heart transplantation
• Cardiovascular disease
• Survival
• Time series
• Kazakhstan