Finansal Krizlerin Önceden Tahmin Yoluyla Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye Örneği(Evaluation of Financial Crises in Terms of Prediction: Turkish Case)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to evaluate today’s conjuncture with projection method for the Turkish economy by observing how leading indicators acted before the November and February Crises. In other words, some questions such as “Could November and February Crises be prevented by the help of leading indicators?”, “Did the leading indicators work for the Turkish economy?”, “If they did so, can we estimate the probable crises?”, “Can we protect from the crisis?”, “Can we manage the crisis?” are tried to be answered. To aim this goal, various macroeconomic indicators from the literature have been determined as the leading indicators of the November and February Crises. The differences in these indicators before and after the crisis will be investigated.

Keywords

• Finansal Krizler
• Öncü Göstergeler
• Finansal Kriz Modelleri
• Financial Crises
• Leading Indicators
• Financial Crisis Models